Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are currently 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 cents higher since closing 1 to 2 1/4 lower on Tuesday. The weekly EIA report showing ethanol production and stocks as of Jan 4 is back to the normal Wednesday schedule for this week. CONAB will be releasing their updated January Brazil production estimates this Thursday. USDA does not always adopt CONAB numbers, particularly early in the season, but it is a hint as to crop conditions and production potential down there. USDA will be delayed this month, but traders surveyed by Reuters are expecting a 94.31 MMT projection. China approved one new GM corn trait (DP4114) for importation after no trait approvals since 2017.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are mostly 2 to 3 cents higher this morning. They ended Turnaround Tuesday with the front months 5 to 6 cents lower on profit taking. Preliminary open interest showed some net new selling, rising 10,264 contracts. Soymeal futures were down 60 cents/ton, with soy oil 8 points lower. Trade estimates for the January USDA reports (which are delayed due to the government shutdown and will NOT be released on Friday) call for Brazil’s soybean production estimate to be trimmed to 120.13 MMT, according to a Reuters survey. Brazil’s CONAB, however, will release their estimates as scheduled this Thursday. The US/China trade talks in Beijing are still on going and heading into a third day on Wednesday according to US trade officials. The application deadline for the $1.65 MFP payments will be pushed back from Jan 15 by the USDA due to the government shutdown.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are trading 3 ro 5 cents higher at the moment. They saw 1 to 2 1/2 cents gains in the winter wheat contracts on Tuesday, with MPLS fractionally mixed. USDA reports scheduled for this Friday will NOT be released as planned, with USDA waiting on funding before announcing the next release. A Reuters survey of traders shows expectations for the delayed winter wheat seedings report at 32.279 million acres, with 22.727 million for HRW and 6.019 million acres for SRW. That would be down from 2018 planted acreage. French wheat exports in November totaled 1.26 MMT, with 683,000 headed to destinations other than countries in the EU. That was up slightly from October. Egypt’s GASC is tendering for wheat, with results expected today and late Feb/early March delivery sought.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures posted a sharp $2.10 gain in Feb on Tuesday, with other contracts higher. There has been some talk about death loss and lower finishing weights due to heavy snows last week in NE and KS. Feeder cattle futures were up 80 cents to $1.625 in most contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was down 43 cents on January 7 at $145.63. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down a penny at $213.98, with Select 95 cents lower at $207.26. USDA estimated WTD FI cattle slaughter at 237,000 head. That was 2,000 head above the same week last year. The FCE is back online this week, with a total of 513 head offered for today’s auction from KS and NE.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were mixed on Tuesday, with front month Feb up 70 cents. We’re in the index fund roll period, and Feb open interest dropped more than 11K yesterday as positions were rolled to April. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 87 cents from the previous day @ $54.50 on January 4. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 40 cents on Tuesday afternoon at an average weighted price of $70.16. The national base cash hog carcass value was $1.16 higher in the PM report, with a weighted average of $50.18. This week’s FI hog slaughter through Tuesday was estimated at 960,000 head, which was 48,000 head larger than the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are showing strong triple digit gains of 103 to 119 points in most contracts this morning. They saw 86 to 108 point losses in most contracts on Tuesday. The US dollar was up on the day. The US and China met for trade talks in Beijing on Monday and Tuesday, as US trade officials confirmed they will meet again on Wednesday. We will likely be without the Export Sales report again this week due to the partial government shutdown. USDA is extending the MFP application deadline past the original Jan 15 date due to the partial shutdown. The Cotlook A index was up 180 points from the previous day on January 7 at 81.50 cents/lb.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!


Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.